Importantly, ethereum is also escaping the bearish sentiment affecting the stock market. Risk assets like stocks are struggling in response to persistently high inflation in the US and the worrying news that price rises have become embedded in the broader economy. For example, the wage-price spiral is now in effect, and inflation slowed only slightly to 6.4% in January of 2023 from 6.5% in December, less than market forecasts of 6.2%.
The macro backdrop for ethereum is bearish. We analyse various on-chain/flow metrics for ethereum, which are neutral. Overall, we are neutral to bearish on ETH in the short term. Therefore, if you have a two-to-four-week horizon, now may not be a good time to buy ethereum.
Furthermore, the correlation of ethereum to NASDAQ started to increase sharply just as US interest rates started to rise. This is a common occurrence throughout history. When the liquidity tap turns off, usually by central banks raising rates, the correlation between diverse assets shoots up. This time appears no different.
One exercise is to see how low prices could get were the NASDAQ to suffer a 2000-style crash. After all, the ethereum and NASDAQ correlation was around 80% until recently. So where the NASDAQ goes, ethereum follows.
Back in 2000, the NASDAQ suffered a 78% drawdown. Currently, the NASDAQ is in a 30% drawdown. A repeat of the 2000-style drawdown would put the NASDAQ at 3,500. So where would crypto be if NASDAQ were trading at this level We estimate a regression between ethereum/bitcoin returns and NASDAQ returns from 2020 onwards. Based on this relationship, we find:
Should the currently restrictive environment of rising interest rates and recession risks subside, we could see ethereum return to its all-time high of $4,379 or even beyond. However, we caution that this scenario is unlikely in the short term and, like with any investment, it is impossible to say with certainty how high ethereum will go.
On the flip side, overregulation could stifle innovation by increasing censorship. The ongoing regulatory backdrop will be key to monitor. Lastly, on ethereum specifically, there is the much-anticipated merge. We previously covered its potential implications. The punchline was that it should be bullish for ethereum.
We think ethereum is a worthwhile long-term investment. However, we also note that ethereum is extremely volatile. That means it experiences large price movements over short periods. Before you invest in ETH, you must understand the risks involved: you could lose all or a large portion of your investment. Never invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
However, to invest in cryptocurrency, we must first understand it. Crypto tokens are unlike any traditional asset class. And they are all different. Just because you understand bitcoin, does not mean you know how ethereum works. Our video on bitcoin and ethereum fundamentals can help you understand how ethereum prices fluctuate and how to assess trends in important ethereum metrics. And the video below explains other cryptocurrencies that might put ethereum at risk.
We think crypto markets are a worthwhile long-term investment. The technology can capture market share on some existing markets like payments and stock trading while creating new markets like valuable scarce digital assets.
Your exposure to ethereum needs to be appropriately sized so that you can survive 50% to 80% drawdowns. Drawdowns provide good entry levels for exposure, but we would not go max long in an environment of rising central bank rates and falling global growth momentum.
For trading ethereum over the next two to four weeks, we are neutral to bearish. That means we expect stable to falling prices. For 2022-3 in general, we think recession risks pose a risk to ETH and so now might not be the best time to buy ethereum if you have a medium-term outlook. We think ethereum is a good long-term investment for the next one to three years and are bullish overall. That means we expect prices to rise in the long term.
As with all investments, the value of ethereum can rise as well as fall. While it is unlikely that ethereum will suffer a complete loss of value, investors must be prepared to suffer drawdowns of between 50% and 80%. We recommend small allocations and diversification of your portfolio. Never invest what you cannot afford to lose.
Traditional wisdom says you should buy low and sell high. But whether you should sell ethereum depends on your investment horizon, risk appetite and financial goals. Although some website speculate that certain days of the week are better or worse then others for selling ethereum, we believe that any decision to buy or sell should be based on analysis of crypto fundamentals.
We think a small allocation to ETH makes sense in the long term. However, we caution against investing in ethereum too heavily as cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and often subject to large downturns.
Ethereum has been running on two different blockchains since April 2022. One operates using proof-of-work, like bitcoin. The other is a test chain what uses proof-of-stake. The merge is an upcoming event where these two blockchains will combine, ending proof-of-work. It is expected to happen in Q3/Q4 2022, and it will eliminate the energy-intensive mining required in proof-of-work. Guest author Nikhil Shamapant explains more about the ethereum merge and what it could mean for ETH price in 2023 in his recent article.
If you're not sure about using a digital wallet, and want to invest via an ETF, you can't do it yet. However, there is a Bitcoin ETF - GBTC, and you can invest in it or in Ethereum directly on eToro. You can also buy ethereum on a variety of platforms, including:
Once you own ETH, the selling of ethereum is just like the opposite of buying. You simply place a sell order on the exchange - like Coinase or Binance. It's important to note that you don't have to sell Ethereum and receive cash for it.
Ether's more pronounced bounce is being attributed to news that the Ethereum Merge, which will see the blockchain become nearly carbon neutral, is tentatively scheduled to be executed on Sept. 19. That date was penciled in during a recent conference call among ethereum developers, though it was noted that the date is subject to change.
The Ethereum Merge will see the blockchain transition from its current proof-of-work system to proof of stake. What does that crypto mumbo-jumbo mean The short story is that the solving of cryptographic puzzles, which is the part that guzzles electricity, will no longer be part of the blockchain mining process. As a result, it's estimated that ethereum will see its carbon footprint drop by 99.65%. You can find a full explanation of the Ethereum Merge here.
\"This is the first step in ethereum's big journey toward being a very mature system, and there's still steps to go,\" ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin said on a YouTube livestream following the completion of the Merge. \"We still have to scale, we still have to fix privacy, we still have to make the thing secure for regular users, we all need to work hard and do our part.\"
Say you wanted to mine cryptocurrency. You'd set up a powerful computer -- a \"mining rig\" -- to run software that attempts to solve complex cryptographic puzzles. Your rig competes with hundreds of thousands of miners around the world trying to solve the same puzzle. If your computer unscrambles the cryptography first, you win the right to \"validate\" a block -- that is, add new data to the blockchain. Doing so gives you a reward: Bitcoin miners get 6.25 bitcoin ($129,000) for every block they verify, while ethereum miners get 2 ether ($2,400) plus gas, which are the fees users pay on each transaction (which can be huge).
It takes a powerful computer to have a chance in this race, and people typically set up warehouses full of rigs for this purpose. This system is called \"proof of work\" because computers have to prove their energy expenditure by completing the energy-intensive task of unscrambling a puzzle. It's how bitcoin runs and, until Tuesday night, how ethereum ran.
The system is secure. Though scams and hacks are common in crypto, neither the bitcoin nor ethereum blockchains themselves have been compromised in the past. The downside, however, is obvious. As cryptographic puzzles become more complicated and more miners compete to solve them, energy expenditure soars.
The ethereum blockchain that people use is known as \"mainnet,\" as distinguished from various \"testnet\" blockchains that are used only by developers. In December 2020, ethereum developers created a new network called the \"beacon chain\". The beacon chain is essentially the new ethereum.
The Merge saw the data held on ethereum's mainnet transferred to the beacon chain, which has now become the prime blockchain on ethereum's network. Continuing with the bus metaphor, it's as if all of the commuters from the old, less efficient buses are now being loaded onto the buses running less energy-intensive engines.
Absolutely. Critics of ethereum -- typically bitcoin enthusiasts -- compare the merge to changing the engine of an airplane in the middle of a passenger flight. At stake is not just the airplane, but the $188 billion worth of ether in circulation.
There are two primary reasons people predict ether's price will skyrocket following the Merge. First is the idea that ethereum fractioning its carbon footprint will make it easier for big companies to both invest in ether and create ethereum applications.
\"The reality is, if you take the environmental caring part away, there are a lot of people who are not going to use it [ethereum] and not want to invest in it just based on ESG reasons,\" Charbonneau said, referring to environmental, social and corporate governance standards for ethical investing. \"There are a lot of tech companies that have openly said, 'we are not going to do anything until after the Merge.'\" 59ce067264